What are your chances of living to 90?

When I was a marketing analyst, we spent a lot of time trying to predict repeat purchase rates. The single biggest predictor of a second order?

Making a first order. A perfect example of a fact that’s true, accurate, and not very helpful.

There’s a version of this observation in what I do today, but it’s a little more useful. What are your chances of living to 90? One of the best predictors is making it to 80.

What the life table says

According to Social Security’s life table, a 60-year-old woman has about a one-in-three chance of reaching 90. Ask again on her 80th birthday, still walking 7,000 steps a day, down from the 10,000 she used to do, and it’s nearly one in two.

The older you get, the older you can expect to live. Someone who reaches 80 can expect to live to about 89 or 90.

I think about this because a lot of people I talk to dream of leaving a demanding, high-paying job in the next 5 to 10 years. They know their vest dates and their cliffs, and many of them worry just how long their careers will last. But how long that next stage of life might last is a little fuzzier. Often, “somewhere in my 80s” feels close enough.

It’s easy to shrug at the difference between 80 and 90 when both feel a long way off. But if you retire at 60, the difference between a 20-year retirement and a 30-year retirement is 50%, and that’s no small difference.

Two ways to face it

I find that there are two ways to confront this reality, this joyful risk of living longer than expected.

One approach is to feel like you need to suck it up and make things work in your current career a little longer than you expected. Buckle up. Stick it out.

The other approach is to realize you can’t afford to wait to make a change. That if you’re going to have to work longer than expected, you need to find something you can do until you’re 70. Something you actually enjoy.

We’ll often model both. When could you afford to retire? When could you afford to leave this job? Those dates can be years apart, but you have to pick one to plan around, and committing to a path can provide a level of confidence that “hoping for the best” just can’t match.

Source: Social Security Administration, 2023 period life table, 2026 Trustees Report. Period tables apply 2023 death rates with no future improvement.

Educational, not individualized advice.